Based on historical crypto market cycles, we anticipate the next bull run to begin in early 2024 after the Bitcoin halving, with the peak likely in 2025.
The crypto market, with its Bitcoin ascent and numerous altcoins, continues to captivate investors and enthusiasts.
Let’s explore factors and data to predict the next bull run’s timing.
When is the next crypto bull run happening?
The next crypto bull run is likely in 2024 post-Bitcoin halving, peaking in 2025.
Historical patterns show bull runs every 4 years with at least a 77% drawdown between Bitcoin peaks and bottoms.
Here’s a quick look at the previous bull periods, their respective peak dates, and drawdown ranges:
| Peak (date) | Bottom after peak (date) | Drawdown between peak and bottom | |
| 2013 BTC bull run | $1,150 (December 2013) | $171 (January 2015) | -85% |
| 2017 BTC bull run | $19,900 (December 2017) | $3,200 (December 2018) | -84% |
| 2021 BTC bull run | $68,700 (November 2021) | $15,600 (November 2022)* | -77% |
Understanding the crypto bull run
A crypto bull run is a time of surging cryptocurrency prices, where profits soar due to strong investor optimism, drawing in many newcomers eager to ride the upward wave.
What drives the crypto bull run?
The crypto market is heavily influenced by a variety of factors that contribute to the onset and intensity of bull runs.
Understanding these drivers can offer valuable insights into predicting the timing of the next bull run:
1. Market sentiment and hype
Market sentiment is pivotal in crypto. Positive news, endorsements, and media attention can spark a hype cycle, leading to a bull run as traders and investors flock in with confidence in long-term potential, boosting prices.
2. Adoption and acceptance
Mainstream institutions, businesses, and governments embracing cryptocurrencies can drive a bullish trend.
As crypto gains credibility and accessibility, investor confidence rises, pushing the market higher.
3. Halving events
Bitcoin halvings occur roughly every four years, cutting miners’ rewards in half.
This historically increases Bitcoin’s scarcity, boosting prices due to growing demand outpacing supply.
4. Technological advancements
Innovations in blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies can fuel investor interest. New and improved projects with real-world use cases often gain attention, leading to a surge in investment activity and contributing to a bull run.
5. Economic and political factors
Economic instability, political events, and government policies can significantly impact the crypto market. Investors seek alternative assets like cryptocurrencies during uncertain times, potentially leading to a bull run.
Analyzing past crypto bull runs
To gain insights into the timing and dynamics of previous bull runs, let’s take a look at some notable historical crypto market rallies:
The 2013 Bull Run
The first major crypto bull run happened in 2013. At the time, Bitcoin’s price first exceeded $1,000, recording a massive increase compared to 2010, when the world’s first cryptocurrency was changing hands at just 50 cents per coin.
The 2013 bull run was the first event that saw cryptocurrency surpass the confines of computer and cryptography enthusiasts and enter the mainstream discourse.
The 2017 bull run
The year 2017 witnessed one of the most infamous crypto bull runs in history.
Bitcoin’s price soared to an all-time high, reaching nearly $20,000 per coin.
The euphoria extended to altcoins, with many recording staggering gains.
However, this bull run was followed by a significant market correction.
The 2021 bull run
In 2021, the crypto market experienced another remarkable bull run.
Bitcoin once again reached new highs, surpassing $60,000.
Altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin also surged, capturing the attention of the global investment community.
The 2021 bull run was unique due to its very apparent “double top”, with many cryptos having reached new ATHs both in early and late 2022.
Indicators for spotting the next crypto bull run
- Rising trading volumes: Increased trading volumes across multiple cryptocurrencies often precede a bull run, indicating growing market interest.
- Favorable price movements: Consistent price rises in major cryptocurrencies may signal the start of a bull run. Long-term analysis tools like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart can help distinguish short-term fluctuations from sustained uptrends.
- Bullish technical indicators: Technical analysis, including the golden cross and high RSI levels, can hint at potential price increases. CoinCheckup’s price predictions rely heavily on these indicators.
- Increased social media activity: A surge in cryptocurrency discussions on social platforms often reflects market enthusiasm, contributing to a potential bull run.
- Positive regulatory developments: Regulatory changes favoring cryptocurrency adoption can boost market sentiment and drive prices higher.
Preparing for the next crypto bull run involves
- Understanding Market Cycles: Recognize the cyclic nature of crypto markets, alternating between bull runs and bear markets, to predict future trends.
- Embracing a Long-Term Approach: Adopt a “HODL” strategy, holding cryptocurrencies for extended periods, betting on their sustained growth and widespread adoption.
- Diversifying Investments: Spread investments across different cryptocurrencies and traditional assets to reduce risks during market fluctuations.
- Conducting Fundamental Analysis: Assess the growth potential of cryptocurrencies through fundamental analysis, aiding in informed decision-making and identifying promising assets.
Conclusion
Using historical data, the next crypto bull run may start in early 2024 and peak by late 2025.
However, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Instead of trying to time the market, consider investing in projects with strong fundamentals that can thrive during a crypto rally.
Explore our regularly updated list of top cryptos for investment ideas.